Minsk, Kiev Elections to Tighten Ties With Russia

Voters in Ukraine and Belarus will choose presidents Sunday in separate elections that, despite the professed differences of the candidates, will likely result in a tighter core of former Soviet states.In Ukraine, the contest pits the incumbent Leonid Kravchuk, 60, a former Communist Party leader who led Ukraine to independence in 1991, against Leonid Kuchma, 55, the former prime minister who promises immediate economic integration with Russia.Riding his support in the heavily nationalist western Ukraine and a promise of continued independence and stability, the silver-haired Kravchuk scored 37.7 percent to Kuchma's 31.3 percent in an eight-candidate first round two weeks ago. But Kravchuk, facing a tight race in the second round, says that he too wants closer ties with Russia in an attempt to tap Kuchma's stronghold in the east, home to many of the Russians who make up 22 percent of Ukraine's population. So far, the race in Belarus is not nearly as close. In the first round of elections June 23, anti-corruption crusader Alexander Lukashenko won 45.1 percent of the vote to 17.4 percent for conservative Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich, who failed to benefit from clear backing from Moscow.But Lukashenko has expressed concern, echoed by electoral officials, that the 50 percent of Belarus' 7.3 million voters required to validate the vote will not turn out. If elected, Kebich has promised to go ahead with a monetary union with Russia that he says will mend the ties sundered by the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, but voters seem to have found Lukashenko's promise of a purge of corrupt government officials and a resurrection of the union more attractive.Dubbed the "Belarussian Zhirinovsky" by the liberal Russian press, the tough-talking, flamboyant Lukashenko has concerned observers with his penchant for off-the cuff pronouncements."He's another demagogue, another one of those simple solution guys, promising to shoot the criminals," said one diplomatic analyst of Lukashenko.Both candidates in Belarus have pitched reintegration with Russia as the magic solution to their republics' woeful economic state. In Ukraine, only Kuchma has been so blunt, charging that Kravchuk's isolation from Moscow has resulted in economic disaster. While the issue of integration unites the two elections, the strategies of the candidates are different. Kravchuk accuses Kuchma of trying to sell out independence to Russia, jeering the former prime minister for his poor Ukrainian. Kuchma, in turn, argues that his proposed union calls for Ukraine to retain its sovereignty. Meanwhile, the two contenders in Belarus have spent much of their time this week trying to convince voters who is the best man to do business with Moscow.If economic union with Russia is a likely result of these elections, none of the candidates express a deep commitment to market reforms, which have gone much farther in Russia than in either of the republics.concern, echoed by electoral officials, that the 50 percent of Belarus' 7.3 million voters required to validate the vote will not turn out. If elected, Kebich has promised to go ahead with a monetary union with Russia that he says will mend the ties sundered by the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, but voters seem to have found Lukashenko's promise of a purge of corrupt government officials and a resurrection of the union more attractive.Dubbed the "Belarussian Zhirinovsky" by the liberal Russian press, the tough-talking, flamboyant Lukashenko has concerned observers with his penchant for off-the cuff pronouncements."He's another demagogue, another one of those simple solution guys, promising to shoot the criminals," said one diplomatic analyst of Lukashenko.Both candidates in Belarus have pitched reintegration with Russia as the magic solution to their republics' woeful economic state. In Ukraine, only Kuchma has been so blunt, charging that Kravchuk's isolation from Moscow has resulted in economic disaster. Kravchuk, while warning that Kuchma's plan for closer ties with Russia could endanger Ukraine's newly won independence, has also recognized the factors -- an obsolete industrial base, the lack of exportable products, the reliance on Russian fuel -- that in both republics spell the need for some form of economic reunion.While the issue of integration unites the two elections, the strategies of the candidates are different. Kravchuk accuses Kuchma of trying to sell out independence to Russia, jeering the former prime minister for his poor Ukrainian. Kuchma, in turn, argues that his proposed union calls for Ukraine to retain its sovereignty. Meanwhile, the two contenders in Belarus have spent much of their time this week trying to convince voters who is the best man to do business with Moscow.If economic union with Russia is a likely result of these elections, none of the candidates express a deep commitment to market reforms, which have gone much farther in Russia than in either of the republics.