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Fighting Terrorism With a Prayer

People light candles and lay flowers at Lubyanka metro station to commemorate the victims of the March 29 Moscow metro attacks. Denis Sinyakov

After last week’s Moscow metro bombings, the ruling tandem demonstrated two different reactions. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin gave his trademark rough response about dragging terrorists out of the sewer, while President Dmitry Medvedev chose less colorful but still very firm words to show his toughness. Medvedev also made a strong showing by going on a surprise visit to Dagestan, where two more suicide bombings occurred in Kizlyar soon after the Moscow attack.

Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev added some fuel to the fire by saying investigators should look for a “Georgian trail” in the terrorist attacks.

Meanwhile, State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov and Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov accused Vedomosti and Moskovsky Komsomolets of abetting the terrorists by questioning the effectiveness of the country’s law enforcement agencies.

It is obvious that the Federal Security Service is unable to curtail — much less defeat — terrorism. The National Anti-Terrorism Committee was created in 2006 under Patrushev. It conducted numerous training sessions for operatives in charge of the anti-terrorism campaign, but the efforts proved largely ineffective. The number of terrorist acts initially fell to 48 in 2007 but rose to 876 in 2009.

The Moscow bombings have shattered several myths. Putin is no longer seen as being effective in controlling terrorism. The idea that Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov is a “strong hand” capable of defeating terrorism and separatism in Chechnya and other republics in the North Caucasus has been severely undermined. What may be worrying Putin the most, however, is that the rise in terrorism may spoil his favorite pet project — the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi.

Rather than analyzing and correcting the reasons why the fight against terrorism has been so ineffective, the authorities have focused on trying to calm the public with harsh but empty rhetoric about cracking down on terrorist cells. Lacking any concrete strategy, the authorities are mainly praying that there will be no more terrorist attacks — at least in Moscow, where it hurts the most.

The reaction of the people is also important. Unlike the London or Madrid bombings, the Moscow metro attack did not cause Muscovites to unite against a common threat. Many have chosen to avoid the metro altogether by commuting by taxi, and drivers are profiting from the tragedy and the people’s fear of the metro by jacking up prices.

Terrorism has mobilized the authorities, but unfortunately they’re focusing their efforts against the people and not against the terrorists. This speaks to a larger problem in Russia: Society, for all intents and purposes, does not exist. It is more of a conglomeration of disparate individuals.

The ruling tandem, the siloviki and the people are analogous to a shepherd, his sheepdog and the flock, respectively. Following an attack by wolves, the shepherd takes the dog aside and scolds him. But the main reason the shepherd acts harshly is to show that he is the master and that he is not happy with the breach in security. He is less concerned about the welfare of the sheep.

Similarly, the FSB has responded to the Moscow bombings by once again calling for “new and tougher” anti-terrorism measures — and a bigger budget, of course — but it has not addressed the root causes of terrorism. But without breaking this cycle of fruitless anti-terrorism measures that only breed more terrorism, there is little hope putting an end to this vicious circle of violence.

Nikolai Petrov is a scholar in residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

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