BONN -- Human-rights commissioner Sergei Kovalyov said Russia was heading for chaos or dictatorship after the debacle of its Chechnya campaign and that the West must speak out louder.


Moscow would soon try to convince the population that it had achieved complete military victory in its attempt to put down the independence bid of the Caucasian region, he said Wednesday, during a two-day visit to Bonn.


But Kovalyov, who has visited the Chechen capital Grozny under bombardment and is one of the most vocal opponents of military intervention, said people would not believe this.


"We have the Soviet tradition that if people don't believe, they must be forced to believe," he said. "Some form of authoritarian power will be built up, there will be a catastrophic widening of the gulf between government and people and the country will probably sink back to the level we know from the last years of Soviet power.


"The other alternative would be chaos -- in a country which is packed with nuclear weapons, nuclear power stations and where the tradition is not of compromise but of seeking complete victory over your opponent."


Kovalyov accused the West of mincing its words and failing to grasp the ramifications of instability in Russia.


"The reactions of Western governments, including Germany, have been too limp," Kovalyov said. "In Moscow we're not used to that kind of vocabulary. You're too polite for us.


"It just takes another Chernobyl to blow up in Russia and we won't need to worry about the lack of oxygen caused by destroying the Brazilian rainforest."