Leaving Russia Out in the Cold On Free Trade
16 December 1994
MIAMI -- As the sun kissed the white sand of the Miami beaches and the palm trees danced in a gentle offshore breeze, President Bill Clinton held out a spellbinding prospect to his Latin American neighbors -- an offer they couldn't refuse.
Together they could build a new free trade bloc to cover the entire hemisphere from Alaska to Argentina, some 850 million people united in borderless commerce and investment, all happy consumers in the world's biggest market. By the time this new Free Trade Association of the Americas was complete in 2005, Clinton went on, this would be a market of $13 trillion.
Only a month earlier, on the sun-kissed islands of Indonesia, with identical palm trees dancing in a very similar offshore breeze, Clinton made an almost interchangeable speech about an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area, to be in place by the year 2020. The Asia club would command, Clinton said, half of the world's wealth and productive capacity.
Without palm trees or beaches, but in conference rooms in Washington and Brussels, the first exploratory drafts are being composed for a new NAFTA, a North Atlantic Free Trade Association aimed at yet another super-regional group of European Community and the North American economies. This is still in the planning stages, but after the weekend EU summit in Essen, which agreed to launch talks with the various Latin American free trade areas, the plans are advancing fast.
All of these free trade regions have two important elements in common. First, the United States is at the heart of each one. Second, Russia has no place in any of them, even though the geography of Siberia would seem to give Russia an almost automatic right of entry into the Asia-Pacific zone. In this new world in which geo-politics are replaced by geo-economics, the United States is locking itself into the great international institutions of the next century. And Russia is being locked out.
This may or may not be a bad thing. The current fashion for free trade and free market economics is something of a gamble, whose long-term results have yet to be seen. Free trade may boost imports and exports and lead to a larger economic pie, but it divides that pie in ways that disproportionately benefit the wealthy, the educated, the skilled and the adaptable. It exacerbates the disparity which has been marked in the United States since 1972 between the incomes of those with a high school diploma or less and those with college degrees.
"There is a centrifugal force, splitting the workforce, a historical shift of the balance of industrial and social power towards people with skills," says Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who used to write books on all this as a Harvard academic.
That growing gap between rich and poor, between those with the skills to profit from the global economy and those who become its victims, is a classic hallmark of Third World economies. It is also a striking feature of the new Russia. In short, Russia is getting the worst of all worlds: all the social disadvantages of the new global economy, without gaining the benefits of membership in any of the new trading blocks.
This is destabilizing and dangerous, and it carries a warning for Russian diplomats and decision-makers. Their current obsession with Bosnia, NATO and Chechnya is becoming irrelevant and anachronistic compared to the need to ensure Russian access to the big new trading clubs of the global economy.
Together they could build a new free trade bloc to cover the entire hemisphere from Alaska to Argentina, some 850 million people united in borderless commerce and investment, all happy consumers in the world's biggest market. By the time this new Free Trade Association of the Americas was complete in 2005, Clinton went on, this would be a market of $13 trillion.
Only a month earlier, on the sun-kissed islands of Indonesia, with identical palm trees dancing in a very similar offshore breeze, Clinton made an almost interchangeable speech about an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area, to be in place by the year 2020. The Asia club would command, Clinton said, half of the world's wealth and productive capacity.
Without palm trees or beaches, but in conference rooms in Washington and Brussels, the first exploratory drafts are being composed for a new NAFTA, a North Atlantic Free Trade Association aimed at yet another super-regional group of European Community and the North American economies. This is still in the planning stages, but after the weekend EU summit in Essen, which agreed to launch talks with the various Latin American free trade areas, the plans are advancing fast.
All of these free trade regions have two important elements in common. First, the United States is at the heart of each one. Second, Russia has no place in any of them, even though the geography of Siberia would seem to give Russia an almost automatic right of entry into the Asia-Pacific zone. In this new world in which geo-politics are replaced by geo-economics, the United States is locking itself into the great international institutions of the next century. And Russia is being locked out.
This may or may not be a bad thing. The current fashion for free trade and free market economics is something of a gamble, whose long-term results have yet to be seen. Free trade may boost imports and exports and lead to a larger economic pie, but it divides that pie in ways that disproportionately benefit the wealthy, the educated, the skilled and the adaptable. It exacerbates the disparity which has been marked in the United States since 1972 between the incomes of those with a high school diploma or less and those with college degrees.
"There is a centrifugal force, splitting the workforce, a historical shift of the balance of industrial and social power towards people with skills," says Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who used to write books on all this as a Harvard academic.
That growing gap between rich and poor, between those with the skills to profit from the global economy and those who become its victims, is a classic hallmark of Third World economies. It is also a striking feature of the new Russia. In short, Russia is getting the worst of all worlds: all the social disadvantages of the new global economy, without gaining the benefits of membership in any of the new trading blocks.
This is destabilizing and dangerous, and it carries a warning for Russian diplomats and decision-makers. Their current obsession with Bosnia, NATO and Chechnya is becoming irrelevant and anachronistic compared to the need to ensure Russian access to the big new trading clubs of the global economy.
|
|
Tweet |
|
This article has no comments. Be the first to leave a comment |
Discussion
Comments
To post comments you must be registered
Comments via Facebook
Most Read
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
Superjet Flight Data Recorder Found Near Volcano Crash Site
Villagers have found the flight data recorder from the Russian plane that slammed into an Indonesian volcano three weeks ago, killing 45 people.
3.
Ruble Hits Lowest Rate in 3 Years
The ruble dipped to a three-year low Thursday as oil prices fell further.
4.
Duma Deputy Robbed at Ritzy Hotel
State Duma Deputy Gennady Gudkov was robbed at the upscale Hotel National across from the street from the Kremlin after a conference, Gudkov said Wednesday evening.
5.
Putin's Foreign Policy Goes on the Road
In a symbolic gesture, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday arrived in Minsk to pay his first foreign visit as head of state to controversial Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
6.
China-Russia Airplane Venture Planned
United Aircraft Corporation and Chinese Commercial Aircraft Corporation plan to start a joint venture to develop long-haul aircraft.
7.
Police Arrest Young Men for Murder of Japanese Motorcyclist
Investigators say two men aged 20 and 21 stabbed a Japanese motorcyclist to death in order to steal his belongings.
8.
European Debt Crisis Driving Workers East
Despite its inconveniences, Moscow has become a magnet for foreign job-seekers, as unemployment in Europe is hitting record highs amid the debt crisis.
9.
Russian Reserve Colonel Convicted of Spying for U.S.
A Russian court has convicted a reserve colonel of spying on behalf of the United States and sentenced him to 12 years in prison.
10.
Opposition Defiant as City Hall Suggests Alternate March Route
Moscow City Hall has suggested an alternative route for a June 12 opposition march that activists wanted to hold on Tverskaya Ulitsa down to the Kremlin.
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
McFaul Faces Kremlin Scorn Once Again
The Foreign Ministry assailed U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul for comments the ministry said went "far beyond the bounds of diplomatic etiquette."
3.
Sweden Wins Eurovision; Grannies Take Second
Sweden’s Loreen won the Eurovision Song Contest in Azerbaijan on Sunday before an international TV audience of 100 million, days after angering Azeri authorities by meeting rights activists critical of the host country’s human rights record.
4.
Ukraine in Uproar Over Status of Russian Language
Ukraine's ruling party has triggered violent protests with a move to upgrade the official role of Russian, a sensitive issue opponents say will split the country.
5.
150 Detained at Anti-Kremlin Rallies
About 150 people were detained Sunday as scores of people gathered for a series of anti-government demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
6.
Vkontakte Founder Tosses 5,000-Ruble Notes Out Window
<p>The founder of the social networking site Vkontakte celebrated St. Petersburg’s 309th anniversary over the weekend by tossing paper airplanes carrying 5,000-ruble notes out a building window.</p>
7.
U.S.-Russian 3-Year Multientry Visa Bill to Go to Duma
After months of delays, the government has finalized a much-touted visa agreement with the United States and drafted the corresponding bill.
8.
Kennan's Insight Into the Russian Soul
George Kennan is best known as the author of the containment policy, which served as the overarching principle informing U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War.
9.
TNK-BP Head Quits as Shareholder Crisis Flares
Billionaire Mikhail Fridman resigned Monday as chief executive of TNK-BP, plunging the country's No. 3 oil firm deeper into crisis and challenging co-owner BP's grip on the business.
10.
McFaul and State Department Respond to Attack
The U.S. ambassador and the U.S. State Department said they were surprised by blistering criticism from the Foreign Ministry regarding comments McFaul made to students last week.
1.
Hundreds of Arrests Set Grim Backdrop for Victory Day Celebrations
As Moscow gears up to celebrate its victory in World War II, 67 years ago Wednesday, the shadow of political conflict shrouds the capital as hundreds of arrests cloud Victory Day festivities.
2.
Russian Satellite Takes Highest-Ever Resolution Picture of Earth
A stunning 121-megapixel snapshot of the Earth was taken by a Russian weather satellite in what is thought to be the highest resolution picture of the planet ever taken from space.
3.
Bodies, No Survivors Spotted at Superjet Crash
Search and rescue helicopters and volunteers struggling through thick forest and mountainous terrain spotted bodies but no survivors on the Indonesian mountainside where a Sukhoi Superjet 100 crashed by the time darkness forced an end to the search Thursday night.
4.
Tabloid: Superjet Downed by U.S. Industrial Sabotage
A tabloid claims that Russian intelligence agencies are investigating the possibility that the U.S. military may have brought down the Sukhoi Superjet that crashed in Indonesia.
5.
Mysterious Photos Reveal an Unseen WWII
After the end of World War II, Paul Sadler returned home to Chicago with three German books and a photo album from the Dachau concentration camp.
6.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
7.
Furniture Magnate Shot Dead in Mercedes in Moscow Region
A 46-year-old furniture magnate was killed with six gunshot wounds to the head and chest early Sunday as he arrived in his Mercedes at his home in the Moscow region.
8.
New Cabinet Has Familiar Cast of Characters
President Vladimir Putin on Monday announced the makeup of the new Cabinet answering to Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with three-fourths of the members having been replaced.
9.
Vladivostok Bridge Climbers Fined 300 Rubles Each
Three thrill-seekers who climbed two Vladivostok bridges earlier this week and took photos from the top were fined 300 rubles ($10) each for trespassing.
10.
Superjet Missing in Indonesia With 50 on Board
A dark cloud was cast Wednesday on the revival of Russia’s aviation industry when a Sukhoi-built Superjet 100 with 50 people on board disappeared from the radar screens of Indonesian flight controllers.


