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In Spite of Chechnya, It's Business as Usual

Businesses in Moscow remain indifferent to the continuing large-scale violence in Russia's southern region of Chechnya despite analysts' warnings of grave economic consequences.


The 10-day military operation against the separatist regime on Russia's southern borders has had "no effect on the activities or plans of the IBM branch in Russia," its spokeswoman, Olga Belikova, said Wednesday.


"Everybody here is working as usual, we continue receiving customers' orders, and nobody seems nervous over what is happening over there," Belikova said in a telephone interview.


The business-as-usual mood appeared typical Wednesday among Russian and foreign companies in Moscow for whom the Chechnya issue meant little more than extra police in the city brought in to guard against possible terrorist attacks by the separatists.


Colm Fitzsimons, the manager of the Garden Ring and Park Place supermarkets, said his company has kept its security service at the usual levels, while the Christmas boom in trade at the shops had not been affected.


But analysts voiced serious warnings about the aftermath of the conflict.


"I can only express condolences to oil companies that are hoping to get foreign investment," said Sergei Pavlenko, director of the government's Center for Economic Reform.


"If the conflict continues, willingness on the side of Western investors to finance projects that would put pipelines through that region will drop noticeably," Pavlenko said, referring to alleged plans to transport Azeri oil through the North Caucasus.


However, Alexander Vasilenko, a press spokesman for the Russian oil giant LUKoil, said the company's business was not affected. "We are worried about the country, about the money that is being spent, about whether the decision to move in the troops was right. But we have no official interest there," Vasilenko said.


The Chechen conflict has so far failed to have any direct effect on the ruble's rate against the dollar, said Igor Doro-nin of the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. But he warned the operation would mean more government spending in 1995, which in turn would weaken the ruble against the dollar. The government has promised to spend 1 trillion rubles ($291 million) to restore Chechnya's economy, and the military involvement has so far cost 400 billion rubles.


The worst financial effect of the conflict will come if and when "the military demand more finances for the operation and is given it," Doronin said, adding that the Chechen crisis is already contributing as a "background factor" to inflationary fears as Russia nears 1995 without an approved budget.


Expectations of higher inflation have been driving the Russian currency down steadily at about 15 rubles a day for several weeks, although it remained unchanged on Wednesday at 3,427 rubles to the dollar.

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