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Today's paper. Last Updated: 06/02/2012

IMF to Offer Up to $15 bn in New Loans

International Monetary Fund officials are expected in Moscow next week for in-depth talks on a new three-year loan for Russia, this time aimed not simply at plugging the country's budget gap but at long-term structural reform, according to the IMF's top official in Moscow.


The new loan, known as an Extended Financing Facility, would be a follow-up to the $6.5 billion standby loan already being dispensed to Russia by the IMF. Russia could tap as much as $15 billion in credits if the loan is approved.


The talks take place as parliament begins consideration of the government's 1996 draft budget, which deputies already have criticized for rosy inflation targets and neglect of welfare.


Thomas Wolfe, head of the IMF's Moscow office, said in an interview with The Moscow Times that the new funding would be targeted at fiscal and monetary areas, including tax reform, operation of the securities market and cooperation between federal and regional governments. Agriculture and land reform are also on the agenda.


"Under a three-year program like this, one can address in an adequate way some of the structural issues that tend to get pushed aside in a standby agreement," Wolfe said.


By contrast, the current $6.5 billion loan, disbursed in monthly tranches of about $500 million, is earmarked to cover part of Russia's budget deficit, estimated this year at 73 billion rubles, or about 5.4 percent of gross domestic product.


Discussions began on the loan proposal during regular IMF talks in Russia last month, and continued last weekend in Washington ahead of the annual joint IMF/World Bank meeting. But Wolfe said next week's gathering will be the first time that issuing the new money has been the primary focus of the talks.


Wolfe declined to comment on the size of a future loan. However, reports have placed potential funding between $9 billion and $15 billion.


First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais said last weekend that the annual disbursement was likely to be lower than that provided in the current standby agreement, which he called a sign of Russia's progress in reaching economic stabilization.


Russia also could be a candidate for a $6 billion-plus currency-stabilization loan from the IMF to support the ruble. But Chubais said last month that Russia was unlikely to seek such a loan in the near future.


Russia's efforts to remake its old Soviet economy along market lines won praise recently during a meeting of ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations.


Much of the economic progress cited by the G-7 centered on the macroeconomic objectives of the current loan. September inflation fell to 4.5 percent from 17.5 percent in January, and industrial output has stabilized.


The government forecasts a monthly inflation rate of 1.2 percent in 1996, and Finance Minister Vladimir Panskov said Wednesday that parliamentary moves to budget a 3 percent or 5 percent monthly rate could jeopardize Moscow's chances of winning the three-year loan.


"They are not given at such rates of inflation, even 2 percent," Reuters reported Panskov as saying.


As with the standby agreement, which dispenses money in $500 million monthly tranches, the EFF would be issued at regular intervals based on Russia's performance under predetermined criteria.


But because of the nature of the issues and the length of the loan, EFFs are intended to be more flexible than current standby loans, Wolfe said, adding that deadlines and priorities can change over time.


Russian authorities have expressed interest in reaching an agreement on the three-year loan by the end of the year. Should that occur, Wolfe said, the standby loan would be cancelled and its remaining funds factored into the EFF.


In addition to exploring a potential EFF agreement, next week's meetings will continue the IMF's monthly examination of Russia's economy and its adherence to IMF conditions placed on the $6.5 billion loan, which was approved in March to help close a balance of payments gap.


The group looks at half a dozen factors, such as the level of net international reserves, the size of the budget deficit and the net domestic assets of the Central Bank. While reduction of month-to-month inflation is a key objective, it is not treated too rigidly.


"What happens to prices in the economy is not completely under the control" of the government, Wolfe commented. "There's no way the authorities can guarantee that inflation will be 'X' percent each month."


With the exception of an initial payment of $1.1 billion, the standby loan money has been disbursed in monthly tranches of $500 million. About half of the loan has been approved and drawn upon. Wolfe said. The final funds are scheduled to be provided by March.


The loan is denominated in Special Drawing Rights -- special IMF currency units based on five international currencies -- and has fluctuated in dollar terms from between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion.







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