"The region is ... becoming ever more vulnerable to Middle East politics and supply disruptions," according to a company report on energy security in North Asia. "The end of the Cold War opens up the former Soviet Union as a promising alternative source of supply."
Billed as the world's fastest-growing energy-demand center, oil demand in North Asia -- China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan -- could hit 14.29 million barrels per day by 2010, just under the 15 million barrels per day needed for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Europe, ING Barings said.
North Asia's oil-import demand stood at 10.06 million barrels per day in 1994. All the countries in the region, except China, import their oil requirement.
China's annual crude oil production is currently well over 140 million tons, but domestic demand requires it to import. It shipped in 14.5 million tons from January to November 1995.
"The region is more dependent on imports of energy than either the U.S. or Europe. It is particularly dependent on the Middle East and this is set to increase," the report said.
China, which became a net oil importer only in 1994, might have to meet 45 percent of its oil needs through imports by 2010, it added.
The growing dependence of North Asia, particularly China, on the Middle East for its oil has gained importance after Beijing's recent moves to woo Saudi participation in joint oil ventures.
Saudi oil minister Ali bin Ibrahim al-Huaimi recently said his country won backing for major joint-venture refineries from China's premier Li Peng.
He said Li affirmed that China attaches special importance to bilateral petroleum co-operation with Saudi Arabia, especially due to Beijing's burgeoning oil demand growth.
ING Barings said with OPEC production rising steadily and accounting for between 49 and 54 percent of world production by 2010, the cartel of oil exporting countries would have more say over oil prices in future.
As for natural gas, the CIS states, Russia in particular, have reserves and export capacity to meet a significant increase in Asian demand, the report said.
"There is ... a natural convergence between Russia's search for export markets and hard currency, and North Asia's need for new sources of energy," it added. Russia produced 607.4 billion cubic meters of gas in 1994, of which 105.8 billion was exported. Reserves in Sakhalin, Sakha/Yakutia, Irkutsk and Turkmenistan available for export to North Asia stand at 5.42 trillion cubic meters, it said.
"Gas can be carried by pipeline from across the border to North East China, which makes it cheaper and reserves are likely to prove sufficient to supply the same volumes of gas which Russia supplies to Europe," it said.
But there are still no pipelines to carry gas to Asia, and liquefied gas tankers are very expensive. Funding is needed, especially from overseas, to develop new oil and gas fields.
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