PARIS -- If conservative Prime Minister Edouard Balladur wins the April-May presidential election, buy French bonds and the franc, and stick with the Paris bourse.


If his Gaullist rival Jacques Chirac carries the day, sell some francs and go warily into bonds, but pile into stocks.


Get rid of them all if, on May 7, Socialist Lionel Jospin is declared president of France.


According to a daily poll by the business daily L'Agefi and Reuters, those are the knee-jerk reactions expected when French markets reopen after a long weekend on May 9.


The survey -- which gives the average estimates by up to 19 market players of opening prices for that Tuesday -- shows that while Balladur has been overtaken by Chirac in opinion polls, he remains the markets' clear favorite.


"The markets see it as a gradation of the level of risk, with Balladur being the lowest," said Jean-Fran?ois Mer?ier, an economist at Salomon Brothers in London.


He said Balladur -- prime minister since 1993 -- is considered a familiar and safe pair of hands, while the others are suspected of being less committed to reducing the budget deficit to meet the criteria for European economic and monetary union.


Knee-jerk reaction is one thing. Predicting the longer-term outlook is more difficult, especially if political uncertainty is prolonged by a dissolution of parliament.


Jospin is the only candidate to have said he would dissolve parliament, currently ruled by a center-right coalition. But an acrimonious battle between the two right-wing candidates in the second-round run-off could split the coalition, prompting Chirac or Balladur, whichever is elected, to call an election.


"It is clear that there will be a lot of political uncertainty after the second round," said Warburg Bacot-Allain economist Alain Galibert.


He argues that a new government would not be in a position to act decisively until August or September, delaying policy decisions and bringing a period of confusion which would inevitably weigh on the franc.


Even if parliament is not dissolved there will be a period of uncertainty as markets wait for a new prime minister and cabinet.


Economists said Jospin is distrusted by markets, partly because of a fear that as a Socialist he may tax and spend to bring growth and jobs.