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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/30/2012

Exporters Fret Over Currency Sale Plan

Exporters expressed fears Wednesday that Russia's banking system would not be able to cope with the forced sale of 100 percent of foreign currency earnings, as proposed by President Yeltsin.


Adolf Krapotkin, deputy chairman of Exportles, Russia's biggest timber products exporter, said that the government's proposals were not clear, but that "the first reaction of producers will be negative".


"It all depends on how efficiently the financial system is going to work. Selling 100 percent of currency presupposes internal convertibility of the ruble", he said.


It could be weeks before exporters actually received the rubles they had bought at the exchange, he said, attributing the potential delays to Russia's chaotic banking system.


In the meantime, the ruble might continue to tumble, while reconverting rubles into dollars would still be restricted, he said.


Krapotkin also said that producers were concerned that the supply of dollars to the exchange would never meet demand.


One Western banker added that 100 percent sales would be a disaster for Russian firms trying to make long-term financial plans.


He said that keeping some of their money in hard currency protects Russians who are looking to buy investment goods from the huge jumps in the spot ruble rate.


Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar's spokesman on the economy, Alexei Ulyukayev, accepted the criticism that the Russian banking system was not ready for 100 percent sales.


He said that the matter had been put off in the past for that very reason. To make 100 percent sales of currency work, he added, Russia needs a well-developed bank and exchange system.


The Russian system was not perfect, Ulyukayev said, but it was "better developed than it was in July".


He said the proposal on selling 100 percent of hard currency was nothing surprising.


"The Russian hard currency market should encompass all of the hard currency returns obtained by Russian importers. Currently only 10 percent of these returns are sold", he said.


The law on 100 percent hard currency sales will be the third big change in currency rules to hit exporters this year.


The first was a law requiring raw material producers to sell 40 percent of hard currency to the government at a special commercial, and much less favorable, exchange rate.


Then in July, a new law raised the amount to be sold to 50 percent, 20 percent on the currency exchange to commercial banks and 30 percent to the government at the market rate. In effect, this was a boon to exporters because the market rate for hard currency soon rose above the old commercial rate.


The oil industry accounts for the bulk of Russia's exports, and its response to any new policies on hard currency sales is crucial.


The oil industry currently exports an estimated 35 percent of production illegally, and the figure could rise unless oil producers accept the new exchange system




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