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The official line was that Medvedev had been "promoted" to the position of first deputy prime minister. In reality, Medvedev was fired. In his work as chief of staff, Medvedev had almost constant access to the president. As first deputy prime minister he'll get to see Putin on major holidays as part of a government delegation.
What was so unexpected about Medvedev's ouster? Independent political analysts agree that Putin's second in command is deputy chief of staff Igor Sechin. Sechin prefers to avoid the limelight, however, so Putin gave the top job in his administration to Medvedev.
Endowed with significant administrative clout as chief of staff, Medvedev soon emerged as a powerful figure in his own right. Everyone who has locked horns with Putin's real No. 2 over access to the president has lost, however. Dmitry Kozak was exiled to the North Caucasus as a presidential envoy. Medvedev was no exception.
Medvedev had to be replaced with a trusted insider. Sergei Sobyanin fit the bill. As governor of the oil-rich Tyumen region, Sobyanin is by definition close to Rosneft, the oil company headed by Sechin.
And that would have been the end of it if not for the extremely successful PR campaign that accompanied Medvedev's "promotion." If the government's military campaigns were this successful, Shamil Basayev's head would have been displayed on a stake on Red Square rather than in an interview on the U.S. television network ABC.
The experts tell us that Medvedev is being groomed to succeed Putin as president. If that's the case, why was he removed from the second most powerful job in the government and installed as the deputy to a prime minister with no real power?
So another high-ranking official got the boot. He wasn't the first, and he won't be the last. So why all the spin? Because Medvedev was good at his job, and if you admit that his increasing competence was the reason for his removal, it becomes all too obvious who really calls the shots in the Kremlin.
Succession rumors get started for three reasons. The first is to compromise a rival. This explains the rumor that deputy chief of staff Vladislav Surkov was working on the idea of a parliamentary republic. This idea had first been proposed to Putin by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and it was viewed as evidence of disloyalty to the president. By tying Surkov to the same idea, the rumors effectively painted him as an ally of Khodorkovsky.
Second, would-be successors have been known to start such rumors about themselves in order to raise their political profile.
Third, succession rumors are floated as a trial balloon to test the ostensible successor's own reaction and to see if any sworn Putin loyalists would switch camps.
Rather than analyze the rumors, we need to discern the logic at work here. If someone calls you from the Kremlin and tells you in confidence that 2 times 2 is 17, and then someone else calls from the Kremlin and tells you that 2 times 2 is 5 1/2, there's no reason to waste your time trying to figure out which caller is closer to Putin. Just do the math.
There is arithmetic, there is logic, and then there is the logic of power. And according to the logic of power, authoritarian rulers don't resign their posts.
Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.