 | To Our Readers |
The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number. |
China's growing economic and military might is changing the balance of power between Moscow and Beijing. This has caused anxiety among various groups of people in Russia -- especially those living in geographic proximity to the Celestial Empire -- and some have been raising the alarm of a Chinese threat.
But is that threat real? If the main concern is only that China is a very large, rapidly developing country, then Beijing should also be in constant fear of Russia -- another huge and powerful country. Similarly, European countries would have cause to fear their largest neighbors, France and Germany, and by the same logic those two should fear each other. However, Europeans have learned to live in harmony without mutual fears or animosities. Can Russia hope to have a similar relationship with China and not view its eastern neighbor as a threat?
To answer that question, let's begin by taking a look at Beijing's public statements. In their official documents and speeches, Chinese leaders constantly speak of the need to strengthen friendship and cooperation with the outside world and to achieve a multipolar balance of powers in international relations based on peaceful coexistence. Beijing emphasizes that it has no intention of practicing hegemony or expansionism, either now or in the future. Experience has shown that their words are generally backed up by deeds. China has invariably strived to develop military, political, economic and humanitarian ties with Russia. China does not build up its military presence near Russia's borders, does not join any anti-Russian coalitions, helps Russia to expand its influence in the Asian-Pacific region, supports Moscow's opposition to NATO expansion, founded the Shanghai Cooperation Organization together with Russia and actively cooperates with Russia at the United Nations.
Behind all of these actions lies a real and significant interest on the part of China for a strategic, long-term and close partnership with Russia. Let's begin with the fact that Beijing does not accept the current unipolar world order, seeks a multipolar structure in international relations and requires Russia's aid in establishing it. China faces other problems in the international arena. These include tensions with Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries, as well as an ongoing problem with Taiwan. Beijing must also confront serious domestic challenges: economic, social, ethnic, ideological, ecological and so on. Under such difficult conditions, it is to China's clear advantage to maintain peaceful relations with Russia to the north, with which it shares a 4,000-kilometer border.
One more factor unites Russia and China: Their economies complement each other. Over the long term, China will require increasing quantities of energy resources from Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as our technologies -- especially military. For its part, Russia has an interest in exporting energy resources to China, and through China, to other countries of the Asian-Pacific region. Russia also has an interest in buying consumer goods manufactured in China and in hiring Chinese laborers.
Several negative factors also influence -- or could influence -- Russian-Chinese relations. The main irritant is the dramatic increase in the number of Chinese citizens living in the Russian Far East. This has prompted fears of demographic expansion by Russia's giant neighbor.
How should Russia behave in these circumstances? Of course, Moscow could focus its attention on the problems and try to anticipate China's next move. However, predicting the future is extremely difficult if not impossible. At the beginning of the 20th century, some academics and politicians predicted that China would constitute Russia's greatest threat. In fact, the enemy ended up coming from the West, and Russia fought two world wars on its western flank. Russia could continue trying to guess the future, but it will never succeed. And in the process of trying, it would provoke tensions that are far from necessary. By exaggerating the notion of a Chinese threat, Russia will only irritate the Chinese, get itself all worked up and ultimately spoil relations.
Russian politicians should instead focus their efforts on whatever will bring Russia and China closer together and enable them to continue cooperating. The main basis for such cooperation is the complementary nature of their economies. The proper approach is to cooperate with China -- in fact, to work with Korea, Japan, Southeast Asian countries and with all states that want to participate -- in developing the productive power of Siberia and the Far East. What would that give Russia? First, interested foreign powers would be forced to compete with one another, making it impossible for any one of them to achieve hegemony. Second, Russians will migrate toward the new jobs and opportunities, strengthening the Far East. And even if at some later date problems do arise between Russia and China, it will be easier for Russia to defend those regions because they will have become stronger, more developed and more densely populated by Russians.
Another advantage to cooperation is that it will deepen our interdependence. The Chinese, Japanese and others who invest in our eastern regions or who work there will literally have a vested interest in seeing those territories prosper. Recall once again the example of Europe. France and Germany were at war over disputed territory for almost a full century. Now the Franco-German border has become only a virtual construct, with people moving across it in both directions without even noticing that it exists.
Russia's main approach to China should be characterized by close bilateral cooperation and recognition of our mutually complementary economies. Our common geopolitical interests should also play a role. Geopolitical cooperation with Beijing is worthwhile, but the question is just how far it should go. I think that Russia should maintain the customary relations with China -- while cooperating with the United States and the West -- in order to press Washington and its allies to move toward a multipolar world in which the various powers would not compete with each other, as has been the case in the past, but would cooperate. A foundation already exists to facilitate that type of cooperation -- the United Nations, regional multinational organizations and international law.
Yevgeny Bazhanov is the provost for science and international relations at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy in Moscow.