Install

Get the latest updates as we post them — right on your browser

Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/28/2012

Bureaucrats Trying to Trump the Law of Physics

Long ago, I formulated what I humbly call the “Golts Principle” — the more absurd the idea, the more likely it is that the Russian bureaucracy will embrace it. The motive is clear: By adopting impossible goals, bureaucrats can milk the state budget indefinitely.

This axiom was confirmed yet again recently. Lieutenant General Valery Ivanov, head of the Aerospace Defense operational strategic command, announced that a highly sophisticated, integrated air and space defense system has been created in response to an order from President Dmitry Medvedev and that it will be operational by December. Ivanov stated that his command, the former Moscow air defense district, would now include space defense forces as well.

This fairy-tale dream of outdoing the United States in missile defense has been dragging on for four years. In 2007, then-Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced his intention to combine air defense and space defense forces to create a unified system of aerospace defense. Specialists were unanimous in ridiculing the idea, citing the laws of physics as proof that the administrators were misguided.

The project’s logic was simple: Since the insidious United States is planning an air and space attack against Russia, the Defense Ministry must therefore counter with an advanced space defense system. That makes it necessary to combine the country’s air and space defense systems.

But there was one little problem that the authors of this grand idea preferred not to mention — the systems are not combinable a priori. Enemy missiles flying through space are subject to one set of laws of physics, while missiles entering the Earth’s atmosphere are subject to another. Thus, shooting down enemy missiles in both air and space require two completely different systems of radar — one for air and one for space — and, correspondingly, two different systems of interceptor missile technology.

But apparently military and civilian bureaucrats, in their relentless attempt to milk billions of dollars in defense allocations, are trying to trump basic laws of physics. In comparison, the United States clearly has a better understanding of the law of physics. It has developed two missile defense systems in air and space separately and hasn’t attempted to achieve the impossible of combining the two systems into one.

The harebrained idea of an integrated air and space defense system is just the latest in a series of ridiculous projects coming out of the Defense Ministry. Take, for example, the “miracle weapon” — the S-500 system allegedly capable of intercepting enemy missiles in Earth’s atmosphere as well as in the lower reaches of space. According to Valery Ivanov, the S-500 will be operational by 2015. But I would not be so optimistic. The S-400 — the precursor to the S-500 — was deployed in 2007. In the four years since, only 32 units have been produced, or enough to equip just two regiments. Ivanov expects to receive shipment of 16 more units by year’s end, enough to equip one more regiment.

Thus, it is unclear on what grounds Ivanov thinks that Russia’s aerospace forces are already capable of defending two-thirds of the country’s territory. What’s more, the history of the S-400’s deployment indicates that the S-500 will fare no better. Almaz-Antei, the Moscow-based defense contractor that produces the S-400 and is supposed to produce the S-500, has yet to begin mass-producing either of the systems.

But Ivanov can fabricate whatever cock-and-bull stories he wants. After all, Russia has used its lack of an integrated air and space defense system as an argument to oppose European plans to improve its own missile defense system. Now that NATO has rejected Moscow’s proposal to create a joint sector-based missile defense system, Russia will defiantly try to create its own super-advanced missile defense system.

Regardless of Russia’s (or any other country’s) technological inability to create such a system, there is another inherent basic problem: Russia is still driven by Cold War-era nuclear deterrence theory. By even threatening to create an integrated air and space defense system, Moscow is tacitly implying that it would want to launch a first strike against the United States and thus needs an advanced defense system to weaken the effectiveness of any U.S. counterstrike. Or, just as ludicrous, it is implying that the United States could launch a nuclear first strike against Russia. Is this 2011 or 1983?

The problem is not simply that senior officials are supporting a pointless idea, but that they are pushing a proposal that has been publicly ridiculed and declared technologically impossible.

There can only be two possible explanations for this. Either the officials have discovered new laws of physics, or, as the Golts Principle asserts, individuals with a vested interest in the program have prevented their superiors from learning that the specialists have already dismissed this kind of aerospace defense system as impossible. The fact that this crazy idea is treated seriously by Russia’s military and civilian bureaucrats calls into question their ability to achieve even the simplest goals of defense and national security.

Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.





This article has no comments.

Be the first to leave a comment


Discussion
The Moscow Times welcomes your comments and invites you to discuss topics with other readers. Your comment will be posted automatically to enable a live discussion. If you aren't familiar with our comments policy, you can read it here.

If you're a registered user, you can start typing your comment below. If not, take a moment to sign up. and then return to the article.

If your comment doesn't appear, contact us by using our web form.

Comments

Comments via Facebook



Also in Opinion

There's Just One Nationality — Mathematician

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind."

Russia's New Propaganda Minister

After Monday's announcement that historian Vladimir Medinsky was appointed the culture minister, critics quickly labeled him the new propaganda minister. Medinsky's academic ethics and historical distortions may raise serious questions, but for the Kremlin, he has three important attributes that are much more important: He is a model United Russia leader, a firm Putin loyalist and a skilled sophist.

Spinning Medvedev's Government

Were this 2008 and not 2012 — and had Dmitry Medvedev been named prime minister without having first served a full term as president — then the composition of his new government might have created a generally positive impression.

New Government Faces Old Problems

A longstanding platitude shared by both the Kremlin as well as domestic and foreign analysts is the need for Russia to diversify its economy away from energy dependence and reduce its non-oil budget deficit.

Putin's Postman Delivers Nothing at the G8

In the mid-1990s, former President Boris Yeltsin fought hard for the right to sit as equal at the same table with the leaders of the world's seven leading democracies. Using a lot of political wrangling, Moscow finally secured permanent membership in this elite club where the real heavyweights are supposed to solve the world's most pressing problems.

Russia Stays Home

Just three days before his return to the Kremlin as president, Vladimir Putin met behind closed doors at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow, with U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who was there to transmit President Barack Obama's renewed determination to strengthen cooperation with Russia.



print


Comments

This article has no comments.

Be the first to leave a comment



To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.

Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.



Most Read
MarketGid