It is now a year since U.S. Vice President Joe Biden announced a “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations. A year later, the reset is working, but it is lacking momentum and could easily be reversed.

The overall atmosphere has improved since U.S. President George W. Bush left office. Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev and their respective ministers seem to get along, and any differences that come up are managed quietly without vitriol in the media.

The follow-up agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is near completion, despite serious differences on verification measures and linkage between strategic nuclear reductions and missile defense. Cooperation on Afghanistan is moving forward with U.S. military cargo and personnel now going through Russian airspace and railways, although still in small numbers. 

Russia has moved closer to the U.S. view that a new set of United Nations-mandated sanctions against Iran may be warranted, but it is holding out hope that it will never actually have to vote for them.

U.S.-Russian competition in Russia’s backyard did not flare up. With Viktor Yushchenko’s departure from power in Ukraine, a sharp thorn has been removed from U.S.-Russian relations. The other thorn — Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili — remains, but he has been licking his wounds after the war in 2008.

Obama has treaded lightly in this sensitive area to avoid derailing the larger agenda with Russia, but he has refused to recognize Russia’s “privileged interests” there.

But there are other areas in which things are not so smooth. Washington is openly hostile to two Russian strategic initiatives — Medvedev’s pan-European security treaty and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s proposal for a Russia-NATO treaty. Both are viewed, erroneously, by the Obama administration as ill-disguised attempts to undermine NATO. While Lavrov’s idea of a Russia-NATO treaty is a step in the right direction and worthy of a second look, Medvedev’s plan is probably a long shot.

Talks on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization are languishing, while a brawl over U.S. poultry imports makes it challenging for the Obama administration to graduate Russia from the infamous Jackson-Vanik amendment.

The reset is at a crossroads. It will either gain speed or will quietly fold. We have been at this station before, only to miss the train. Better make sure we catch it this time. 

Vladimir Frolov is president of LEFF Group, a government-relations and PR company.