Install

Get the latest updates as we post them — right on your browser

Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/28/2012

Why Putin Is Mad at Me

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin got very angry last Wednesday when he met with the editors-in-chief of Russia's top media outlets. He complained to Ekho Moskvy editor-in-chief Alexei Venediktov about the "complete rubbish" that he heard from two defense analysts on a recent program on the radio station. In addition, Putin claimed that the analysts were promoting the interests of a foreign power — implying the United States. I regret to say that the defense analysts who riled Putin so much were Alexander Konovalov and yours truly.

Putin began by saying that if the United States deploys radar installations for a missile defense system in Georgia, Russia might be forced to aim some of its missiles at Tbilisi. The problem with that argument is that Washington has no plans to deploy any radar facilities in Georgia. True, four Republican U.S. Senators proposed this idea last year, but it was little more than a propaganda stunt. No one in the White House — and few in Congress — took the proposal seriously, but the mere idea was grist for Putin's mill in his attempt to produce more anti-U.S. phobia within Russia.

Putin was particularly angry over Konovalov's suggestion that the location of  U.S. missile defense installations should not concern Russia's political and military leadership because they pose little, if any, threat to the country's nuclear deterrence capabilities.

One day after Putin's meeting with journalists, Dmitry Rogozin, Putin's newly appointed deputy prime minister in charge of the defense industry, rushed to Putin's defense in an interview, also on Ekho Moskvy. Rogozin explained that the insidious Westerners are hoping to place their missile defense installations closer to Russia's strategic missiles to intercept them during their initial boost phase.

There are several problems with Rogozin's argument. First, the U.S. Standard Missile 3 interceptors — or SM-3, which the administration of President Barack Obama plans to deploy in Romania and Poland — have ranges too short to reach Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles at their start position, much less in flight. This restriction applies to advanced versions of the SM-3 interceptor that might appear in 2018 or 2020. Thus, Russia's nuclear deterrence would not be threatened either now or later.

Second, the United States recognized that trying to intercept an intercontinental ballistic missile during its boost stage would be futile because of the extremely narrow window of opportunity — just a few seconds. There is simply not enough time for a missile defense system to react to a missile launch. Thus, it is no surprise that the United States officially abandoned this strategy in 2009. Instead, the Pentagon stated that the most effective point to intercept a missile is during the intermediate phase.

In his interview, Rogozin describes a scenario in which the United States could deliver a massive, crippling nuclear missile strike against Russia, presumably hitting all of Russia's land-based missiles at once — and hitting them so quickly that Moscow would have no time to respond with a land-based retaliatory strike. But, Rogozin argues, since the United States may not be able to hit every sea-based nuclear missile in its initial strike, Washington needs a small missile defense system of 30 or so interceptors to strike the two or three missiles Russia might still be able to launch in retaliation from one of its submarines.

At the same time that Rogozin and others describe this apocalyptic nuclear scenario, they are indignant that the United States won't share every single technical detail about its missile defense system. Then, they claim that Washington not only has no interest in building a strategic partnership but is actually plotting to weaken Russia's nuclear deterrence capabilities.

The Kremlin's stance is schizophrenic. On the one hand, it proposes developing a joint missile defense system with the United States as a key step to boost the "reset," while at the same time it suggests that the United States is developing its own missile defense system to allow it to launch a massive first strike and protect itself against a retaliatory strike.

It is as if Rogozin, Putin and many other top officials are living in the early 1980s, when the Kremlin truly believed that the United States might deliver a "decapitating" nuclear first strike, undermining the mutually assured destruction theory. What they conveniently ignore, however, is the fact that Russia has an effective early-warning system that can detect a massive missile launch from the United States about 20 or 30 minutes before they would hit their targets. This is more than enough time for Russia's nuclear arsenal, consisting of about 500 delivery vehicles and 1,500 nuclear warheads, to respond. Moscow would be able to launch a counterstrike in retaliation within minutes after a U.S. first strike is detected in flight. This serves as the basis of nuclear deterrence and mutually assured destruction. Because the United States understands that a massive U.S. nuclear first strike would be met with a massive retaliatory strike before its missiles could reach Russian targets, this is a priori a guarantee against a U.S. nuclear first strike.

The irrationality of Rogozin's and Putin's arguments proves that Russia's hysteria over U.S. missile defense has no relationship whatsoever to the country's national security. My suspicion is that the real reason behind the Kremlin's obsession with missile defense is to deflect attention away from any discussion about the deterioration of democracy in Russia, whether it be censorship of television, corruption among top officials or election fraud. This is probably the real reason Putin lost his temper.

Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.





This article has 6 comments on TheMoscowTimes.com and 3 comments on Facebook.

Leave a comment


Discussion
The Moscow Times welcomes your comments and invites you to discuss topics with other readers. Your comment will be posted automatically to enable a live discussion. If you aren't familiar with our comments policy, you can read it here.

If you're a registered user, you can start typing your comment below. If not, take a moment to sign up. and then return to the article.

If your comment doesn't appear, contact us by using our web form.

Comments



Djordje Nikola

My god what a naive article.First,if what Golts said was true then may i ask Why would US risk reset with Russia over abm schield?Second,i read in a distinguished Foreign policy that american sm-3 missiles were capable of intercepting Russian icbm's and will become even more capable in the future.The article said that Russia was lagging dangerously behind Amerca in nuclear missile power,the article was published in 2006.Third,i dont believe there is even a kid who believes that iranian and north korean missiles were the reason for deployment in europe(near Russian borders).In recent years west is becoming more and more aggressive just look at the number of countries the west invaded last 10 years(Yugoslavia,Serbia,Iraq,Lybia,Afganistan,Pakistan...) and is preapering the war against Iran and Syria,so no wonder Russia is nervous.

FBR

Djordje Nikola LOL I see you are at it again, same nutty style post.your about as much informed about the use of missiles as the kid you mentioned, in your other post you stated the invading of a number of countries by the US, you failed to answer one of my questions and refused to acknowledge a statement, first the countries you speak of that we the US invaded was as I said in another post was done by NATO which the US is part of, being the US is bigger and greater in military power we stand out over the other countries, so it looks like it is the US invading, (wrong) learn your lessons. And you did not answer me as to why Russia invaded Afganistana and was there for seven years, or do you not have an answer to that. your a case Djordje Nikola good luck to you and your god Putin.you both sound a little screwy.

Djordje Nikola

fbr ok listen genious everybody in the world (except you)knows that nato is under total american control (yeah thats why 2 out of 3 commanding generals in nato are american),whats the compositon of nato invading forces :90% are american!!!!Thats because other nations are not so blood thrsty but dont have political will to say no to US.USSR invaded Afganistan over 30 years ago,and while USSR stayed 7 years,US stayed over 15 years in Vietnam and killed OVER five million viatnamese.You still didnt answer me,are you still blood thrsty afther soooo many invasions recently.

FBR

Djordje Nikola what is the difference 30 years ago and today ? yes maybe 90% of Nato is US forces , but again no other country has the size of military as the US , but still there are countries in NATO that have veto power, why don't they use it if they feel things were so wrong. oh and why is Russia helping the US in Afganistan, allowing supplies to be shipped there through Russian territory and you still do not read what I type, I told you in past post I was against IRAQ, war and Afganistana I am for getting out and let them kill each other just as sadum did to thousands of Kurds, be ok with me they wipe each other out. but again you do not mention that the US is most the time first in helping countries when deasters strike, and again if we wanted your land or any land , we would own Japan, Germany and a few other countries, but we gave it back,you talk as if we want Russia, what in hell would we do with a country that is half desolate, the US or any American has no desire to own or want any part of Russia. oil and gas, we have enough here to last us a hundred years or more, so can't be for the oil. and sure as hell can't be for your merchandise. I think you are confused and do not know how to right your confusion. Tell me have you ever been to the US ? A friend of mine from russia came here to visit 5 times and said the American people are nothing like you were told about us in Russia.we are good people , we don't want your blood or land, but step on us and all hell will brake lose. As for myself, I would just as soon leave any war zone and let the people fend for them self. does nothing but take our money and what ever else they can get for free.that money can do us more good here. But I see there is little hope we will agree on much.

wiz ..

Djordje Nikola and FBR Reading the above article and your comments it reminded me of an old film with Sean Connery and Michelle Phiefer... THE RUSSIAN HOUSE. If you haven't watch it, then try...... Similar story and arguments, when a Russian Scientist informed the Birtish MI6 and of course their partner CIA that the Russian intercontinental missile system was rubbish....... After verification of it's authenticity and accuracy by American Experts....... the Head of CIA asked the question. What do I do with this report now? If I make it public to the congress..... many people in our country (USA) will go hungry as there will be no Boogeyman to fight and the American huge defence industry needs a Boogeyman, Russia, to continue thriving and making money. The USA and UK use NATO to further their political agenda's and not for the original purpose for its creation, thus they bypass the UN, for their political reasons, like the war in Iraq Afhganistan and soon with Iran...... Russia has nothing to worry from these playground games by the USA .... they are only for internal propaganda from either side, they both have elections and both have to support their arm sales and industries and as mentioned.... otherwise they co-operate very nicely in Afghanistan, space and so many other spheres.

Report Inappropriate Comment




Comments via Facebook



Also in Opinion

There's Just One Nationality — Mathematician

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind."

Russia's New Propaganda Minister

After Monday's announcement that historian Vladimir Medinsky was appointed the culture minister, critics quickly labeled him the new propaganda minister. Medinsky's academic ethics and historical distortions may raise serious questions, but for the Kremlin, he has three important attributes that are much more important: He is a model United Russia leader, a firm Putin loyalist and a skilled sophist.

Spinning Medvedev's Government

Were this 2008 and not 2012 — and had Dmitry Medvedev been named prime minister without having first served a full term as president — then the composition of his new government might have created a generally positive impression.

New Government Faces Old Problems

A longstanding platitude shared by both the Kremlin as well as domestic and foreign analysts is the need for Russia to diversify its economy away from energy dependence and reduce its non-oil budget deficit.

Putin's Postman Delivers Nothing at the G8

In the mid-1990s, former President Boris Yeltsin fought hard for the right to sit as equal at the same table with the leaders of the world's seven leading democracies. Using a lot of political wrangling, Moscow finally secured permanent membership in this elite club where the real heavyweights are supposed to solve the world's most pressing problems.

Russia Stays Home

Just three days before his return to the Kremlin as president, Vladimir Putin met behind closed doors at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow, with U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who was there to transmit President Barack Obama's renewed determination to strengthen cooperation with Russia.



print


Comments

This article has 6 comments on TheMoscowTimes.com and 3 comments on Facebook.

Leave a comment


To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.

Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.



Most Read
MarketGid