Ukraine Is Losing Its Way

Since President Viktor Yanukovych’s election in 2010, Ukraine has experienced a significant and alarming deterioration in its democratic framework. Fundamental tenets of a democratic society —freedom of expression, assembly and the press — are increasingly coming under pressure. Moreover, the prosecution of opposition members, culminating in the arrest and detention of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko during a trial that most of the West has deemed politically driven, seems to confirm that the rule of law is being brushed aside.

Given Ukraine’s strategic importance, particularly with regard to European energy security, the country’s fate has become an urgent matter of concern for the West. Among the most worrying factors underlying Ukraine’s anti-democratic turn are the following:

1. Consolidation of power. After Yanukovych’s election last year, he pressed the Constitutional Court to rescind constitutional changes made in 2004 as part of the settlement that brought about a peaceful end to the Orange Revolution. By doing so, Yanukovych reversed a consensus to reduce the presidency’s powers and move toward a more parliamentary system. Instead, Ukraine’s president is now increasingly consolidating his control over the executive, the legislature and the judiciary.

2. Corruption. Corruption is endemic in the government. Efforts to combat it are at best half-hearted, and inaction is now having an economic impact. Foreign direct investment is falling, and the European Union has currently frozen $100 million of financial assistance as a direct result of the administration’s failure to curb graft in public-sector procurement.

3. Increased activity among security organizations. Individuals, nongovernmental organizations and journalists have been either overtly threatened or placed under surveillance.

4. Harassment of opposition parties and independent media. The ongoing criminal proceedings against opposition politicians, including Tymoshenko, together with the impact of changes in the electoral law to favor the president are weakening opposition forces.

Harassment of the independent media ranges from administrative obstruction to much worse. The disappearance of Vasyl Klymentyev — editor-in-chief of Novyi Styl, a newspaper that focuses heavily on corruption in the Kharkiv region — has never been fully investigated. Most television channels are in the hands of four groups that have close links to the ruling Party of the Regions. Valery Khoroshkovsky’s continued ownership of Yanukovych’s Inter Media Group, in addition to his roles as head of the country’s security service and as a board member of its central bank, is an obvious conflict of interest.

5. Oligarchical rule. Large elements of Ukraine’s economy — including exports, energy and the media — are controlled by a small number of people who often have overt criminal connections or direct links to the Party of the Regions. Such individuals have little incentive to change the status quo, much less commence the much-needed fight against corruption.

6. A weak civil society. While observers believe that further harassment of NGOs is constrained by the administration’s wariness of international reaction, particularly from the EU, the operating environment for civil society organizations remains extremely difficult, and they have no opportunities for genuine inclusion in policymaking.

Ukraine has reached a crossroads. One signpost points toward democracy, while the other toward autocracy. A clear majority of Ukraine’s citizens favors EU membership, but their enthusiasm is tempered by the absence of a clear EU policy toward Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Yanukovych administration proclaims its willingness to join the EU but has failed to introduce the changes needed to meet the qualifying criteria. As a result, Ukraine is unlikely to be invited to start membership negotiations anytime soon. Worse still, the 2010 extension of Russia’s lease on its naval base at Sevastopol in exchange for cheaper gas is indicative of a growing Moscow-Kiev rapprochement with obvious implications for many EU countries’ energy security.

It is in the EU’s vital interest to strive for a far more active policy toward Ukraine. The current Polish EU presidency should hark back to the origins of Poland’s thriving democracy and recall the essential support that it received from the West a generation ago. A similar effort is needed for Ukraine today, and that effort should not be set aside for reasons of political expedience or simple economic self-interest.