Install

Get the latest updates as we post them — right on your browser

Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/28/2012

Russia Could Become U.S. Enemy No. 1

Over the past month, as U.S. politicians busily undermined the country’s economy and the global financial system in an ideological fight over the debt ceiling, Russia quietly awaited its fate. According to a survey by the Public Opinion Fund, some 70 percent of Russians believe that any new global economic crisis would hurt Russia. The experience of the Great Recession 2008 has sunk in: Russia suffered more in the Great Recession than any other large economy.

True, other nations had no way of influencing decision making in Washington, and they are now also being dragged into the current stock market sell-off. But over the long term and behind the scenes, most U.S. allies and trading partners have considerable leverage. For example, China owns $1.2 trillion in U.S. government bonds. Beijing avoids open confrontation and prefers to act quietly, but as the United States’ largest creditor, it has a way of making its views heard. European allies, despite being often frustrated by U.S. unilateralism in recent years, also have some influence on the U.S. government. India and Brazil, too, are acquiring political weight in proportion to their recent economic growth.

Foreign influence in Washington will only increase in coming years. The unseemly fight in Washington over raising the debt ceiling and the near default has shown that the world’s only remaining superpower is in a deep crisis. The United States has lost its national purpose, and its political elites are either divided along ideological lines or in the pocket of the highest bidding lobbyists — or both. This climate is tailor-made for quiet, behind-the-scenes meddling in U.S. domestic affairs from foreign powers that might try to skew U.S. national policy to their benefit.

But not Russia. It, too, lacks a national purpose. Earlier this year, when the Middle East was thrown into turmoil, Russia had an opportunity to become a responsible oil supplier and a true member of the Group of Eight. It should have taken a lead in calming world markets. But the opportunity was missed. Russia remains the troubled teenager of global politics. It is more likely to pointlessly criticize and provoke the United States than work within the framework of the international community.

Yet, while it claims to dislike the existing economic system, it relies on global markets to sell its commodities and buy imports. Russia relies on capital markets to borrow funds and uses the free movement of capital to allow oligarchs and bureaucrats to hide their wealth in foreign banks and buy property abroad.

In late July, the U.S. government took time out of the debt debate to approve visa restrictions on dozens of Russian officials connected to the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. Russia responded by threatening to impose sanctions on Americans.

It is a largely symbolic gesture, but a dangerous one — primarily for Russian elites. So far, U.S. President Barack Obama has shown himself lacking one political skill: allocating blame and creating “enemies of the people.” But the Republicans are far less scrupulous in these areas, and Obama’s successor will likely be much nastier. On the international scene, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which is both economically inconsequential and unreliable, is a perfect candidate to replace the depleted al-Qaida as the United States’ top enemy. With the U.S. economy sliding into a new recession, a suitable foreign enemy will be an economic and political necessity.

By raising the ante in the fight over the Magnitsky list, Russia has left itself open for more retaliation, possibly also involving Washington’s European allies. This is something that the Russia’s elite certainly won’t like.

Alexei Bayer, a native Muscovite, is a New York-based economist.





This article has 0 comments on TheMoscowTimes.com and 1 comment on Facebook.

Leave a comment


Discussion
The Moscow Times welcomes your comments and invites you to discuss topics with other readers. Your comment will be posted automatically to enable a live discussion. If you aren't familiar with our comments policy, you can read it here.

If you're a registered user, you can start typing your comment below. If not, take a moment to sign up. and then return to the article.

If your comment doesn't appear, contact us by using our web form.

Comments

Comments via Facebook



Also in Opinion

There's Just One Nationality — Mathematician

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind."

Russia's New Propaganda Minister

After Monday's announcement that historian Vladimir Medinsky was appointed the culture minister, critics quickly labeled him the new propaganda minister. Medinsky's academic ethics and historical distortions may raise serious questions, but for the Kremlin, he has three important attributes that are much more important: He is a model United Russia leader, a firm Putin loyalist and a skilled sophist.

Spinning Medvedev's Government

Were this 2008 and not 2012 — and had Dmitry Medvedev been named prime minister without having first served a full term as president — then the composition of his new government might have created a generally positive impression.

New Government Faces Old Problems

A longstanding platitude shared by both the Kremlin as well as domestic and foreign analysts is the need for Russia to diversify its economy away from energy dependence and reduce its non-oil budget deficit.

Putin's Postman Delivers Nothing at the G8

In the mid-1990s, former President Boris Yeltsin fought hard for the right to sit as equal at the same table with the leaders of the world's seven leading democracies. Using a lot of political wrangling, Moscow finally secured permanent membership in this elite club where the real heavyweights are supposed to solve the world's most pressing problems.

Russia Stays Home

Just three days before his return to the Kremlin as president, Vladimir Putin met behind closed doors at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow, with U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who was there to transmit President Barack Obama's renewed determination to strengthen cooperation with Russia.



print


Comments

This article has 0 comments on TheMoscowTimes.com and 1 comment on Facebook.

Leave a comment


To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.

Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.



Most Read
MarketGid