The echoes of Russia's debt default in 1998 — which is now, fortunately, of mere historical interest as seen from Moscow — seem to reverberate worryingly in Europe.

Clearly economics is a social science. Some economists would like to assume laboratory-like conditions. But the period since the implosion of the Lehman Brothers investment bank in September 2008 has been an abject lesson in the risks of treating economics as being scientific at all.

Upon leaving Cannes this past weekend after two days of fruitless discussions at the Group of 20 Summit, President Dmitry Medvedev was no doubt in good company. Along with Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barack Obama, they were all probably wondering why they had even bothered to come. As it turned out, the singular focus of the summit, chaired by French President Nicholas Sarkozy, was the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone.

It is unlikely that anyone who follows the news is unaware that the global economy has entered "a dangerous new phase" as Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, stressed last month.

Poor Anton Siluanov, Russia's new acting finance minister. Siluanov, following in the footsteps of Alexei Kudrin, who resigned a week ago, is not to be envied. Without his predecessor's expertise and experience, Siluanov may have been handed the proverbial poisoned chalice.

No one knows yet how and when what Harvard professor Ken Rogoff calls the "great contraction" will end. How can Russia, which is so vulnerable to oil price changes and capital flow surges, try to steer a steady policy course in the face of such uncertainty?

It will be interesting to see what role President Dmitry Medvedev decides to play at the Group of Eight summit in Deauville, France. Of the many issues on the crowded G8 agenda, the one that is not even to be formally discussed could show Medvedev's true colors.

As President Dmitry Medvedev sits down with his BRICS counterparts on Thursday at their third annual summit in Sanya, on China's Hainan Island, they will include South Africa's Jacob Zuma for the first time. Other than adding an "S" to their BRIC logo, the question is whether there will be any substance emerging from this seemingly unlikely grouping.

I recently came across an unexpected piece of comparative analysis by a former IMF colleague, Jonathan Anderson. It brought home how Russia's uniqueness is exhibited in a significant way when
contrasted with other countries.And it led me to wonder whether Russia, more than most middle-income countries, was particularly or even uniquely vulnerable to external financial shocks.

Most leaders refrain from long-term speculation about their economies for the simple reason that it is hard enough to have a clear idea of growth projections even just a year ahead. In Russia’s case, however, a long-term goal was articulated, and the leader may still be in place when the time comes due for the final assessment.

Sometimes through a combination of good policies and some good luck, countries may acquire safety margins as insulation from the financial vicissitudes of the global economy. Unfortunately, Russia's long period of good fortune is rapidly coming to an end.

Even low expectations can be disappointed. President Dmitry Medvedev and the other Group of 20 leaders, who are in Seoul for their fifth summit in two years on Thursday, cannot relish the prospect of a wasted trip and, even worse, of a wasted opportunity.

Over the weekend, the world’s financial leaders met in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting. There were many pious speeches asserting that with the global economy exhibiting stagflationary features, cooperation was critical.

A ruble exchange-rate crisis in two or three years is not inevitable, but if inflation is allowed to accelerate and real interest rates — adjusting for the effects of inflation — become negative again, an exchange-rate crisis just becomes a question of time.

As Muscovites ease into summer and head to the dacha, little do they realize that the Russian economy may be shifting beneath their feet. When they return in the fall, they may not recognize where their economy is.

Russia’s low-debt economy is an important legacy of its 1998 sovereign debt default. But its ability to avoid debt problems that are crippling other nations is tightly linked to the oil price that sustains the budget.

A combination of an unsustainable fiscal policy, weak government and some bad luck was enough to provoke the financial markets to abandon Russia in droves some 12 years ago, and a similar set of circumstances seems to be conspiring to erupt in a financial collapse in Greece in the near future.

Russia should not borrow in foreign markets this year. From an economic point of view, it makes no sense.

Whatever you might say about Russia, its economy is undoubtedly integrated with the rest of the world, making it vulnerable to economic crises abroad.

For all the criticism that can be heaped on the authorities who could have done more or could have acted sooner, they do deserve some credit for reasonably good economic management.

While all of the BRICs have had their problems, it is clear that Brazil — not Russia — has been the outlier, and there is greater likelihood that Russia will overtake it in terms of nominal GDP by 2020.

Once in a while, as in early 2007 and more recently, the Central Bank has purposefully pursued an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate in the theoretically correct but misguided belief that it would help to curb inflation.

The government's long-term strategy calling for more, not less, privatization is predicated on the usual arguments that the state is rarely an effective manager in a market economy and the state holdings are a revenue drain.

The recent financial market euphoria in the country may actually be warranted, although you would not know it when even senior officials warn of trouble ahead and difficulties for the banks because of escalating bad loans.

One of Russia's official policy goals is for the ruble to become a leading regional reserve currency. President Dmitry Medvedev presented his vision in general terms almost a year ago at the St. Petersburg economic forum.

On Monday, Prime Minister Putin acknowledged to the State Duma that Russia's economy contracted by 7 percent in the first quarter.

By now almost everyone on the planet has felt to one degree or another the most virulent global economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Among the Group of 20 countries, which represent 80 percent of global output, Russia stands out as an anomaly in at least one way: It continues to have a problem with high inflation.

For those of us who were veterans of the Russian financial crisis of 1998, it certainly feels eerily familiar right now.

Those expecting a bold initiative to come from the meeting of the Group of 20 in Washington that President Dmitry Medvedev will attend Saturday will be disappointed.