Medvedev's Toughest Presidential Test

It was bound to happen at some point -- President Dmitry Medvedev would have to face the difficult test of responding to a serious crisis. It came last week, when Georgia attacked South Ossetia with a barrage of Grad truck-fired missiles.

His first official battle as president was not a very original one -- the fight against corruption. Every president takes this on, and the anti-corruption measures usually end up being a lot of window-dressing. Nonetheless, all eyes were on Medvedev. They wanted to know how he would wage the battle, what weapons he would use and how they would differ from those used by his predecessors. Since Medvedev was a relative unknown, the people and the political elite both wanted to know what his exact leadership style would be -- and how much it would differ from Vladimir Putin's style when he was president.

Then came the scandal with Mechel, the coal and steel company. Putin publicly chastised the company's owner for what he considered illegal attempts to avoid tax obligations. Medvedev remained silent for a long time after that, although many observers expected some kind of reaction from him. Finally, Medvedev, copying Putin's colloquial language, announced that it was time for the government to stop "creating nightmares" for businesses.

Now, the big test for Medvedev has become Georgia. From the outset, Medvedev had no choice but to send armed forces into the region.

Since his inauguration in May, Medvedev has demonstrated a soft leadership style, but Russians don't care much for that kind of president. Medvedev is the total opposite of Putin, whose abrupt and forceful manner impresses voters. That is the style they associate with "getting Russia up off its knees" and returning the country to its superpower status.

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Once military operations began in South Ossetia, Russians -- having been fed a continual diet of patriotic propaganda -- expected decisive action by the Kremlin to "protect Russian citizens" in South Ossetia.

But at the most critical moment, when it just became widely known to the public that Georgia invaded South Ossetia, the first to make a statement regarding the conflict was not the commander-in-chief but the prime minister. It was Putin who labeled it an act of aggression while still at the Beijing Games, and it was Putin who discussed developments in a series of meetings with world leaders. Medvedev, meanwhile, seemed a bit confused, and he was clearly uncomfortable ruling the country solo during such a heated crisis.

Russia's 58th Army entered the battle one full day after Georgia began its artillery bombardment of South Ossetia. By that time, the capital city of Tskhinvali had been almost completely destroyed, most of its territory occupied by Georgian forces and as many as 2,000 civilians had been killed. What caused Russia's delay in responding to Georgia's initial attack? Were the authorities in the Kremlin and the White House deliberating about the possible reaction of the world community? Or was the military's top brass trying to figure out whether Putin or Medvedev was giving the orders?

It is clear, however, that Medvedev now finds himself in a very difficult situation. He has no choice but to maintain a touch stance against Georgia because any other reaction would be poorly received by domestic public opinion -- especially since official propaganda has portrayed Georgia's unjustified aggression against civilians as being supported by the West, primarily the United States. The people remember all too well how Putin behaved in a similar situation, when the second Chechen war began in 1999. They expect the same from Medvedev; otherwise, people would begin to call into question his ability to run the country and accuse him being spineless.

The situation looks even more complex when viewed from a global context. It would seem that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili won the first days of the war thanks to some heavy doses of propaganda. The West surely helped Saakashvili out when it did not condemn his ruthless attack and civilian casualties. Instead, almost all of the Western news agencies began their reports from South Ossetia with the words, "Russian tanks invade Georgia."

Saakashvili remains a poster child for the West's struggle against Russian imperialism, a process begun by East European countries at the end of the 1980s. Further, Saakashvili has insisted that he is complying with international law because it is a battle for the territorial integrity of his country against separatists. He claims that he resorted to a military solution only after 15 years of fruitless negotiations and after Georgia became convinced of the inability of Russian peacekeepers to regulate the situation impartially and effectively.

How will Medvedev emerge from this military conflict? If he handles it poorly, it could mean the beginning of the end of his presidency. And that would mean that Putin's return to the Kremlin is all but guaranteed.

Georgy Bovt is a political analyst and hosts a radio program on City-FM.