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Long Chechen War Predicted

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Pro-Moscow Chechen officials warned Thursday that the conflict in the rebel region could drag on for decades, fueled by a volatile mix of dedicated independence fighters and federal forces whose presence stokes resentment among war-weary civilians.

Federal troops took control of the northern two-thirds of Chechnya months ago, and officials in Moscow have repeatedly claimed that the insurgents are on the verge of defeat.

But the officials?€™ deadlines for winning the war have come and gone several times. Meanwhile, the rebels continue to move around the region, killing federal troops in nearly daily shelling, mine and bomb attacks.

"If in 10 years we get to a situation where there is one explosion per quarter-year, that would be perfect," said Shamil Beno, the Moscow representative of Chechnya?€™s pro-Kremlin government. "If in 30 years Chechnya becomes to Russia ?€¦ what Northern Ireland is to Britain, that would be great."

But he said that Russian troops?€™ often indiscriminate bombings and rough treatment of Chechen civilians had stoked resentment and increased support for rebels.

Federal commanders have balked at sending troops into close combat against outnumbered but nimble guerrillas. Instead, they hammer areas where they say rebels are spotted with heavy air and artillery attacks, causing heavy destruction and civilian casualties.

On Thursday, rebels yet again ambushed a troop convoy, this one moving through the Nozhai-Yurt area, which has seen repeated attacks, Itar-Tass said. The report said soldiers were killed, but it wasn?€™t clear how many.

Federal officials, meanwhile, have announced that the situation is quiet enough that they will move the headquarters of the pro-Moscow civilian administration in Chechnya back to Grozny from nearby Gudermes on Nov. 1.

Grozny, which is in ruins, sees rebel attacks almost every day and is laden with mines and live shells.

Hundreds of thousands of Chechens have fled, most seeking refuge in the neighboring region of Ingushetia. But refugee camps are badly equipped for winter, with aging tents, inadequate heating and often scarce food.

Moscow says its military campaign is aimed against what it calls terrorists based in Chechnya who twice invaded neighboring Dagestan last year.

Also Thursday, a reporter saw military helicopters fire toward a group of soldiers protesting wage arrears in Grozny. Federal riot police and Chechen policemen who cordoned off the area around the protest said the soldiers were on contract with the army.

The soldiers had arrived at a military office in three trucks and two armored personnel carriers to demand their money, the policemen said. They fired back from an antiaircraft gun, but there were no injuries.

Interior Ministry officials at the military?€™s base in Khankala, near Grozny, said he had not heard anything about a shooting incident.

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