The Moscow Times

With 2012 under way, it is worth reflecting on how a decade of strong economic growth in emerging markets led to last year's resounding political transformations.

In English, I don't have much occasion to use the verb "to seat." In fact, I think the last time I used it was a year or so ago: "Even though we made a reservation, the maitre d' didn't seat us right away."

When Russians look at Iran, they see a country that has been their neighbor and rival forever. As the Russian empire advanced, it wrestled the North and South Caucasus from the shah. Peter the Great annexed, briefly, Iran's entire Caspian Sea coastline and put his forces just north of Tehran.

The situation in Russia has changed so much in recent weeks that the presidential election campaign has almost begun to resemble a real political contest.

The campaign rhetoric in Russia's presidential election has grown increasingly harsh. This happens in many countries, but the difference with Russia is that "external factors" play a disproportionately greater role in the political process. In most other countries, voters evaluate candidates based on their domestic policies or track records, especially with regard to the economy.

The future of capitalism is again in question. Will it survive the ongoing crisis in its current form? If not, will it transform itself or will governments take the lead?

While the Russian authorities are, for the time being, using kid gloves to deal with the opposition at home, they have not shown the same constraint in South Ossetia.

When we witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union 20 years ago, we also witnessed the fall of its monuments. The general impression was that we were observing something unique and unusual. But the tendency to destroy old symbols and build new ones is as old as humanity.

The main lesson from the rival anti-Putin and pro-Putin demonstrations held on Feb. 4 is that both civil society and the authorities are walking down a dangerous path of escalation.

Responding to efforts to formulate a concept of public-service broadcasting in Russia, legendary television personality Anatoly Lysenko quipped: "The authorities tossed the public a bone, and rather than chew on the bone members of the public began gnawing on one another."

It is now increasingly clear that what started in late 2008 is no ordinary economic slump. Almost four years after the beginning of the crisis, developed economies have not managed a sustainable recovery, and even the better-off countries reveal signs of weakness. Faced with the certainty of a double-dip recession, Europe's difficulties are daunting.

In the Internet age, the famous aphorism of the 19th-century military theorist Karl von Clausewitz, "War is the continuation of policy by other means," may no longer be applicable.

Today's Moscow is unlovable and unlivable, overdeveloped, underserved by public utilities and choked by traffic. You can't drive, you can't breathe, there is no place to park and walking is impossible thanks to giant SUVs lining the sidewalks.

It is a truism that rapid accumulation of wealth by a privileged minority is bound to generate lasting resentment by the majority.

As Vladimir Putin cruises to an assured presidential victory, Russia's resilient protest movement has to demonstrate that it has the strategy to convert street energy into meaningful political change beyond March 4.